My Odds for the Next Governor of West Virginia

I said I was going to get into some political stuff on this blog, so hear is my first go at it. I read a blog a few weeks ago that gave the odds for individuals being the next Governor of West Virginia. I agreed with some and disagree with some, so I thought I would give my own odds. These are just off the top of my head, not based on any research or conversations. It is real early in this process, so I hope to update it often as candidates come and on. The odds are based on a combination of the odds they run, and the odds they win if they run. Just my thoughts and some logical choices.

First Lady Gayle Manchin--3 to 2: Nobody wants to listen to me when I say this makes perfect sense, so we will just have to wait and see. With a potential field of Democrats that is relatively unknown, he name recognition and favorability make her a logical front runner. Now the timing of the potential run for U.S. Senate that the current Governor Manchin may make, might hinder this chance, but if the two of them run for statewide office at the same time, there is the potential that it might really help them both. The only problem with that scenario would be in the First Lady's ability to raise money. Still, if she wants it, she could be the front runner in this thing
Congresswoman Shelly Moore Capito--3 to 1: A race between Congresswoman Capito and First Lady Manchin would be awesome. Both are well known and could be well funded and it would make for a very interesting campaign. The Congresswoman's defeat of Anne Barth last November makes her an extremely attractive candidate for Governor. She is very strong in the 2nd Congressional District which includes both Kanawha County and the Eastern Panhandle. She would need to do some work in the Southern part of the state, but if her father's network is still strong down there, it might not be as hard as people think. Take First Lady Manchin out of the picture and Congresswoman Capito becomes the obvious choice for our next Governor because I am not sure anyone can beat her.
Speaker of the House Rick Thompson--15 to 1: It is amazing that the odds drop so much from the second candidate to the third, but there just isn't anyone else out there that can make a strong run. Speaker Thompson has strong labor support and has the fundraising ability of being the Speaker of the House. Thompson's problem is the he is relatively unknown, even for the Speaker and he needs to start running soon. He is starting to raise money, but that won't be his problem. His problem will be getting support from the northern and eastern parts of the state. He makes an interesting candidate, but with House members having to run every two years, does he want to take the chance of losing the power he already has. It will be a tough call, but right now, he is probably the top Democratic candidate that anyone is talking about.
Justice Robin Davis--20 to 1: I think this makes a very interesting choice. Justice Davis is always mentioned when it comes to statewide offices and she would make a very good choice is she choice if she decided to run for Governor. Money would not be a problem and Justice Davis would probably be able to work both sides of the legal community in West Virginia, which isn't easy. I am not sure she wouldn't jump at Congresswoman Capito's seat if she ran for Governor, but either way she may be ready to make a move from the Court real soon.
Former Secretary of State Betty Ireland--30 to 1: I know what you are saying, hey Matt, two Republicans in the top five. As hard as it is to believe, Ireland and Capito are probably the two most well known potential candidates, which gives them an early edge. Secretary Ireland has the experience of running statewide, but like all Republicans running statewide, her problem is going to be raising money. Secretary Ireland is a great campaigner though. I remember being out there in 2004 and being impressed with how she worked a room. She knows how to win. The questions is whether she will run. Unlike the Democrats, Republicans don't like to beat each other up in primaries, so her and Congresswoman Capito will have to decide what to do. I have a lot of respect Secretary Ireland's ability to campaign, so that makes her a serious challenge for anyone out there.
Former Speaker of the House Bob Kiss--40 to 1: I don't know if this is just wishful thinking on my part that he would run, but he would make an interesting choice. His odds are at 40 to 1, because I think that his odds of running are about 500 to 1, but if he does run, his chances of winning are good. Unlike current Speaker Thompson, he has pretty good statewide name recognition and he has a strong base of support in Raleigh County and a good base in Kanawha County. He is well liked in the Northern part of the state, but he would have some work to do, as most anyone outside of Congresswoman Capito would have, in the Eastern Panhandle. In my mind he makes the best choice for Governor, but you have to run to win, so this is probably a long shot.
Senator Erik Wells--50 to 1: He is well known and well liked in the Charleston and Clarksburg areas, but his obvious downfall would be his ability to raise money. I am not sure where his money and support would come from in a crowded field, so that makes this choice difficult, but he would be a good candidate if he was given a chance to run unopposed in the primary, which is unlikely, and gain support, name recognition, and money for the general.
Senator Jeff Kessler--75 to 1: Senator Kessler's name keeps coming up for a variety of different statewide seats and he make an attractive candidate. He has everything it takes to make a strong run and his backing by labor and trial lawyers will make is easy to raise money, though not if there is a crowded field. He would be the only really strong choice from the Northern part of the state, so that would give him an advantage, but it is easier for someone from the Southern part of the state to run well up north then vise versa. This would be an interesting candidacy, but he might want to think about running for AG or Supreme Court first.
Treasurer John Perdue--100 to 1: I put Treasurer Perdue on this list because he says he is running, but his odds are not good if he isn't running by himself. Again, it comes down to the ability to raise money and I am just not sure he has that support. He has been a great Treasurer and as the field begins to get larger, he may just decide to stay there.

Other choices that are off the board, but may make there way up there soon:

Carte Goodwin: Serious doubts about him running, but I thought I would throw his name out there, but he makes an extremely, extremely attractive candidate, though he may be a couple cycles away. Keep your eye on this, because if nobody else steps up, the party may turn to him.
Delegate Doug Reynolds: Money matters and Delegate Reynolds has money. Guts matter and Delegate Reynolds has guts. I don't think that he is afraid to lose, but if he is patient and waits his turn, his name is going to come up for a lot of seats over the next several years.
Secretary of State Natalie Tennant: Her name is going to be mentioned, but she would have seriously hard time raising money and I think that she needs to get her feet wet with the SOS position, because she is also going to be in line for a bright future, so she needs to be patient as well.
Senator Clark Barnes: Senator Barnes is a great campaigner and the Republicans seem to want him to do something statewide, so if Congresswoman Capito and Secretary Ireland decide not to run, the party may turn to Barnes.
Senator Mike Green: Senator Green is another young, attractive candidate, but again he needs to be patient and wait. He might me able to put a good run together, while not risking his seat, but he needs to be sure and not make any enemies along the way.
Former West Virginia University President David Hardesty: I have always heard the rumors and now that he is not connected to the University he might make a move. I don't know how serious this would be, but he is well respected and liked around West Virginia, so he would make for a decent candidate.
General Doc Foglesong: I have also heard rumors about this one and he would make an obvious choice. I don't know how likely this would be to happen, but I wanted to get his name out there because he would make a real strong candidate if he throws his hat in there.